STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF INFANT AND CHILD MORTALITY
Despite the global decline in under-five mortality rate from 90 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 48 in 2012, Nigeria has failed to record any substantial improvement. Under-five mortality in Nigeria increased from 138 per 1,000 live births in 2007 to 158 per 1,000 live births in 2011 against the Millennium development Goal target of 71 per 1,000 live births. The data used in this research is a secondary one; the data was fetched from the medical records department of the ABUTH, Zaria. The research was carried out to: test for the difference of two means between infant and child mortality rate; estimate infant and child mortality rate; estimate age specific fertility rate; and to determine the trend line and forecast of infant and child mortality. Descriptive statistics, Regression and Correlation analysis are the statistical techniques used for the study. From the regression analysis result obtained, it showed that both infant and child mortality rates has a direct relationship with delivery rates. The correlation analysis result showed that there is a very strong and positive relationship between mortality and delivery rates. The study revealed that infant and child mortality rates will continue to decrease if there can be improvement in the factors under study.
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Infant mortality refers to the death of a child born alive before its first birthday and child mortality is the death of a child aged between one and five years. Demographers have for a long time been interested in the study of mortality which is one of the components of population change. Infant and child mortality are among the best indicators of socioeconomic development because a society life expectancy at birth is determined by the survival chance of infants and children.
Childhood mortality is an important indicator of all heath programs and policies; likewise it contributes to population projection. Childhood mortality measures also help identify specific population that are at increase in health risk. Several measures of childhood mortality are calculated using Demographic Health Survey (DHS) data. During the twentieth century almost all countries experienced decreases in child mortality rate. However, the timing and pace of the decline varied substantially. Sustained reductions in child mortality began in the nineteenth century in Europe, North America, and Japan and continued gradually throughout the twentieth century. Major declines in other parts of the world generally began only after World War II. Mortality reductions in Asia, Latin America and Africa were usually much more rapid that they had been in countries that began mortality declines earlier. By 1999 there were great variations in child mortality among countries for example, although less than 0.5 percent of children died before the fifth birthday in Iceland, more than 33 percent died by age five in Niger. Since the 1960s the decline in child mortality sometimes has appeared to have stagnated as was the period from 1975– 1985, when many poor countries experienced severe crises and other problems such as economic recovery from the 0.1 crisis of 1973 – 1974. Recent evidence suggests that child mortality has continued to decline in most countries since 1980. However, during the 1990s the HIV/AIDS epidemic halted or reversed declines in child mortality in some eastern and southern African countries. For example, in Zimbabwe in the period 1990 – 1994 there were 50 deaths under age five per 1,000 live births.